基于模糊理论与层次贝叶斯方法的涡轮盘疲劳可靠性分析
甘启义1，黄洪钟*,2，张晓颖2，李彦锋2，钱华明2
（1.成都高新技术创业服务中心，四川 成都 610041；2.电子科技大学 机械与电气工程学院，四川 成都 611731）
摘要：航空发动机涡轮盘的可靠性数据来源通常是多源的，并且各数据信息来源的可信性也不同，给涡轮盘可靠性分析带来严峻挑战。为了解决这一问题，本文首先采用层次贝叶斯方法对涡轮盘的观测数据和其他多源先验信息进行融合；其次对不同来源的涡轮盘可靠性数据进行贝叶斯推理，获得各自的后验分布；最后利用模糊理论对多源信息的后验分布展开分析，形成联合模糊理论与层次贝叶斯方法的涡轮盘疲劳可靠性分析方法。将提出的方法应用到某航空发动机涡轮盘的疲劳可靠性分析实例中，验证其有效性。
关键词：航空发动机；涡轮盘；模糊理论；层次贝叶斯方法；疲劳可靠性
中图分类号：V232.3 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1006-0316.2021.08.002
文章编号：1006-0316 (2021) 08-0007-09
Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Turbine Disk Based on Fuzzy Theory and Hierarchical Bayesian Method
GAN Qiyi1，HUANG Hongzhong2，ZHANG Xiaoying2，LI Yanfeng2，QIAN Huaming2
( 1.Chengdu Hi-Tech Entrepreneurship Service Center, Chengdu 610041, China;2.School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China )
Abstract：The reliability data of aero-engine turbine disk are usually from multiple sources and the credibility of each data source is also different, which brings serious challenges for reliability analysis of turbine disk. In order to solve this problem, this paper applied the hierarchical Bayesian method to fuse the observation data with other multi-source prior information. Then the reliability data of turbine disk from different sources are analyzed by Bayesian inference to obtain the posterior distributions. Finally, the fuzzy theory is used to analyze the posterior distribution of the multi-source information, thus an analysis method of the turbine disk fatigue reliability was developed with a combination of fuzzy theory and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed method is applied to the fatigue reliability analysis of an aero-engine turbine disk to verify its effectiveness.
Key words：aero-engine；turbine disk；fuzzy theory；hierarchical Bayesian；fatigue reliability
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收稿日期：2021-03-07
基金项目：国家科技重大专项（2017-IV-0009-0046）
作者简介：甘启义（1963－），男，四川内江人，博士，主要研究方向为机电一体化、科研开发和管理等，E-mail：1228945849@qq.com。*通讯作者：黄洪钟（1963－），男，重庆人，博士，教授，主要研究方向为可靠性、寿命预测、智能优化等，E-mail：hzhuang@uestc.edu.cn。
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