航空活塞发动机机匣微振磨损可用度分析与预测
冯世榕
（中国民航飞行学院，四川 广汉 618307）
摘要：针对航空活塞发动机机匣微振磨损问题，经统计分析后，发现各机匣微振磨损程度近似呈正态分布，其均值和标准差随工作时间增加而增大。基于正态分布密度函数，建立了机匣微振磨损可用度分析模型。通过建立灰色GM（1,1）模型，对机匣微振磨损程度的均值进行预测，并利用最小二乘拟合多项式拟合均值与方差的非性线关系，实现了可用度的有效预测。预测实例表明，可用度预测结果与实际较吻合，具有较高的预测精度。机匣微振磨可用度的分析与预测，可准确地获得可用度的变化规律，对发动机科学维修具有一定指导意义。
关键词：机匣；微振磨损；GM（1,1）模型；数据拟合
中图分类号：TB11 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1006-0316.2015.08.006
文章编号：1006－0316 (2015) 08－0025－05
Availability analysis and prediction of fretting wear in casing for reciprocating aeroengine
FENG Shirong
( Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China )
Abstract：According to the problem of fretting wear in casing for reciprocating aeroengine, after statistical analyses, find that the degree of fretting wear in casing is close to normal distribution, its mean and standard deviation with time increasing. The availability analysis model of fretting wear in casing is established, based on density function of normal distribution. Through establishing grey GM (1, 1) model, the mean of degree of fretting wear in casing is predicted, and using least squares polynomial fitting to fit the nonlinear relation between the mean and the standard deviation, from the aforementioned methods we can effectively predict the availability. The prediction examples show that the availability prediction results are good agreement with the actual, it has higher accuracy. The availability analysis and prediction of fretting wear in casing, can accurately obtain the change rule of availability, it has certain guiding significance for scientific repair engine.
Key words：casing；fretting wear；GM(1,1) model；data fitting
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收稿日期：2015－01－20
作者简介：冯世榕（1967－），男，四川成都人，硕士，工程师，主要研究方向为航空器维修与适航。
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